United are struggling and we are on zero points. At home, we need the win
Matchday two of the Champions League league phase brings Manchester United to the Metropolitano, kicking off at 21:00 CEST (20:00 BST) on Tuesday 13 October. We are on zero points after our opener at Anfield, where we went ahead and still lost 2-1, while United have three from beating Sabah 4-0 in theirs.
United are not in good form. In the Premier League they have one win, three draws and two defeats from six games, which leaves them 13th on 6 points, and they have gone four games without a win in all competitions since the Sabah match. Still, this is a side with some big names. Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes and Cunha make up a front line that can score on their own. It is true that they are not a side to take lightly, but we are on zero points, and at home we need to win.
In each of the last two seasons, the cut-off for eighth place in the league phase was 16 points. Lose this one, and reaching 16 from the remaining six games would take five wins and a draw. At that point the realistic aim becomes the play-off places from 9th to 24th, and going through via the play-offs would still be a pass mark, but I want to keep the chance of a top-eight finish alive for now. Of the opponents still to come, the two from the higher pots are Bayern and PSV, and Bayern come to the Metropolitano.
Mbeumo is the one scoring up front, and Martínez has had a hand in the goals they have conceded
United have started all 8 of their competitive games this season in a 4-2-3-1. Up front, the player I am most wary of is Bryan Mbeumo. He is a left-footer who plays on the right, and his 3 Premier League goals make him the team's joint top scorer with Bruno Fernandes. Against Tottenham he was used through the middle and scored after turning in the box. In pre-season this summer he also scored twice against Atlético. That said, his ratings in the English press go up and down from game to game, and his performances have been inconsistent.
Bruno Fernandes is the captain and plays as the number 10. Their attacks start with him, through forward passes and long balls. Last season he was named both PFA and FWA Player of the Year, but this season, since his hat-trick against Ipswich, the verdict has kept coming back that he is below par in the Premier League.
Matheus Cunha is mostly used as the central striker, but he has only 1 Premier League goal. Against Tottenham, where he played on the left wing, he set up Mbeumo's goal with his footwork out wide.
At the back, I will be keeping an eye on Lisandro Martínez, the left-footed centre-back. He has started 5 Premier League games alongside Maguire, but he has been involved in a noticeable number of the goals they have let in. Against Fulham he scored an own goal, and for Tottenham's equaliser on 90+2 he lost out to Solanke, who got on the end of a cross.
We are scoring first. The problem is the penalties we give away after that
Getting the first goal has not been a problem for us this season. We have scored first in 8 of our 9 competitive games, and the only exception was the 3-0 defeat at San Mamés. From those 8 games we have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 1. Analyses of the Premier League, among others, put the win rate for a team that scores first at somewhere between 60 and 70%, and set against that, our record is not a bad one.
What worries me is that once we are ahead, we give away penalties and get pegged back. We have been pulled level after leading three times, against Villarreal, at Anfield and against Alavés, and against Villarreal and Alavés the equaliser came from a penalty. We have conceded 3 penalties this season, every one of them either while we were ahead or with the score level after we had been pegged back. Against Villarreal, Hjulmand gave away the first and Le Normand the second, and Le Normand was shown a straight red for it. Against Alavés, right at the end of the first half, Le Normand grabbed Toni Martínez and pulled him down.
Le Normand has given away 2 penalties in his 4 La Liga starts. After the Alavés game, Simeone accepted that it was a penalty and then said: "There is always holding, and there always will be." I do not expect this to be a comfortable game, so starting Le Normand is a risk. If he is left out, two of Romero, Hancko and Pubill can form the centre-back pairing. Hancko only came on in the 62nd minute against Alavés and Pubill did not play at all, so I think they are ready physically.
United concede a lot of late goals. Of the 9 they have let in in the Premier League, 4 have come from the 83rd minute onwards, and Tottenham pulled level against them on 90+2. In the Carabao Cup they were 2-0 up against Brighton and lost. If we go into the closing stages still in front, it may well be United who crack first. That is exactly why we cannot give away penalties in our own box.
Start David and Baena, and let's see a goal from Julián soon
I am happy for David to start up front. He has 3 goals, against Osasuna, Real Sociedad and Real Madrid, and he started against Alavés as well, setting up Grimaldo's opener.
I want Julián to get minutes too. At Anfield he set up Llorente's opener, and against Alavés he drew a red card for an opponent and hit the post with a free-kick, but he still has not scored this season. Against Villarreal in August the whistling started the moment he appeared on the big screen before kick-off, and once he came on in the 66th minute it came back every time he touched the ball. I understand the fans who have a problem with Julián. But to win trophies you need to get the best out of everyone, and right now, no more debating it, the top priority is getting him back to his best form. That is why I want to see him score soon.
I want Baena in the starting line-up too. He has 4 goals this season. Against Villarreal his through ball set up Giuliano's equaliser, and against Alavés, where he began on the bench, he came on at half-time and delivered a really high-quality outside-of-the-foot cross for Romero's winner.
What I will be watching for during the game
What I will be watching for is whether, once we have scored first, we bring danger on ourselves with careless play. I am hoping for a game where we stay focused right to the end and do not let Mbeumo and the rest score.
Going to this match? If general sale is gone, P1 Travel sells official ticket packages with guaranteed seats for high-demand fixtures — check availability for Atlético home matches. Expect prices above face value.
Booking through this link may earn Cholismo Lab a small commission, at no extra cost to you.